Yes I am, guilty as charged. While I do not want the race between Hillary and Obama to hurt the chances for the Democrats in November, I have yet to see evidence of such damage being done. With great support and respect for Hillary Clinton I continue to say fight on.

My Clinton loyalty doesn’t allow me to make a very good argument against the idea that the campaign should call it quits right now and rally around Obama. Lately in my conversations and even on this site the Obama supporters around me seem to belittle my reasoning and my judgement on this matter. So with that in mind I bring you some less biased opinion which sums up what I’ve been thinking lately about the abilty of Clinton to still compete in this race:

(1) Obama will almost assuredly have a lead in pledged delegates when the primary phase ends. However, by itself this does not count for anything. The nominee must win an outright majority of all delegates to acquire the nomination.

(2) Obama will not likely be able to do this via pledged delegates, which means that the decision will be left to the super delegates.

(3) This means that both candidates will have to make an argument to the super delegates.

(4) There are many ways to make an argument to the super delegates. Ultimately, both will have to assert that he or she is the legitimate choice of the party.

(5) One way to do this is via the pledged delegates. Obama can say: “I have won more pledged delegates, so I am the choice of the party.” However, the pledged delegate allocation system has biases that seem to favor Obama.

(6) Another way to make the legitimacy argument is via who has won more votes. I think that this could be at least as persuasive as the pledged delegate argument.

(7) There are many ways to count the votes. No single way is obviously the fairest.

(8) Clinton could take a lead in a seemingly fair vote count.

I’m not a HRC Kook saying Hillary should burn down the convention and break rules to win the nomination or anything crazy and disrespectful to voters. Not by a long shot, no. There are paths to the nomination for Clinton but it won’t be easy. Clinton has shown herself to be fighting for her life though, in Texas and Ohio, and if she brings that fire into the rest of the races then we may just find ourselves with a mess of Obama supporters too depressed to shop at Starbucks come August.

By nearly all calculations, Obama is the front runner.  He has the lead in the popular vote, the lead in delegates, and lead in states won.  But for all his work he still hasn’t been able to deliver a knockout punch to the Clinton campaign.

Right now the common idea is that if Hillary wins at this point it will be by wronging Obama in some way.  I think this is misleading and pure spin.   Recent polls have Hillary and Obama in a dead heat for nominee preference. A new poll out today even has Hillary ahead.  What does it mean for the Obama campaign to be leading in raw numbers but to not be the clearly preferred candidate?  It may mean that Hillary’s chance of being given the nomination at the convention is not that far out of reach.

Hillary has as much as a 25% lead in Penn, Obama’s lead is down to 1% in North Carolina, and there are more states left favoring Clinton than favor Obama. Florida and Michigan do-overs would make life a whole lot easier for Hillary, but she has shown to be against anything but a traditional primary in either state for obvious reasons, and Obama is slow to get on board because of the closeness of the race.  Both sides are accusing the other of political play in these two states but who would expect otherwise from either candidate?  I feel like Obama’s reluctance shows he is in fact worried about Clinton, counter to the message from his campaign people.

So nothing has really changed about my feelings on the race.  The rules of the DNC make it so that delegate count is not the only factor involved.  If after Puerto Rico, and possibly do-overs in Michigan and Florida the delegate difference is around 100, Hillary has caught up or passed Obama in the popular vote, and opinion polling has the candidates locked, then it is plausible for Hillary to be considered a possible nominee. Anybody saying otherwise at this point is biased I feel like.

Apparently Hillary’s raised $3 million since her victories Tuesday. Obama may have raised more, but at this point can either candidate affectivly out-spend the other? At what point is a few million more dollars going to have an impact? Obama outspent Hillary in Texas and Ohio and didn’t get the wins he needed, so I think the point stands.

When Obama had a series of races close together then his momentum and charisma played well and a lack of big money hurt the Clinton campaign. When the campaign stretched long and money was more even Obama’s affects lessoned greatly as Hillary went on the attack.

Since the next big race is so far away you’ll bet that both candidates will be spending mega bucks to secure even 1 more delegate than normal in Wyoming and Mississippi. Hillary will be fighting to keep her momentum and Obama to regain it.

The numbers look well for Hillary from here on out. She’s doing great in Penn and her wins Tuesday should surely keep her lead afloat in the state for a while. If she can pull out an upset in Wyoming or Mississippi then she’ll look even stronger going in. The gap is even closing a bit in North Carolina though where Obama currently has an advantage. If Hillary overtakes Obama in that state then he’ll look pretty weak going into the convention…if it gets that far.

There’s more and more talk about do-overs in Michigan and Florida and I’m all for this, even if they are caucuses which Obama has an advantage with. I think given the dwindling number of contests, that each state will be a huge battle with millions spent.

It’s almost disgusting how much money is being spent, but really the money is being given to them for the purpose of winning so let the people have their show.

It was a great night for Hillary. Almost a 20 point lead in Rhode Island, a 10 point lead in Ohio, and almost a 5 point lead in the Texas primary. The Texas Caucus numbers aren’t in yet but it’s close enough that Hillary may well have collected more delegates in Texas after all, but that remains to be seen.

Meanwhile McCain heads to Washington to collect the endorsement of the 1/3 Lame Duck President so that McCain can begin the road to a 3rd Bush term. Good luck with that, McCain.

The Democrats set their sights on a pair of lower delegate states to wrap up this month. Obama could win both but I don’t want to discount the affect of Mississippi being close to Arkansas. After that it’s on to the finish with a few bigger states heading up to the first few weeks in June.

I think the most important part about Hillary’s wins last night is it shows that her coalition hasn’t broken up as much (if any) as it seemed when Obama was winning 11 in a row. There could be a reshuffling of Superdelegates in the next few weeks but it is much, much harder today than it was yesterday for anybody to argue Hillary should drop out and not keep fighting. Still alive.

Tomorrow is the big day for Hillary. The day she’s been wishing would get here faster since Feb 6th. Everything seems to rest on tomorrow for the Clinton campaign and luckily things are still in her reach.

Nobody really questions Rhode Island at this point. Obama made one stop there but Hillary is pretty sure to win it, even if by just 1%, most likely 10% to 15% though. Vermont is a sure loss for Hillary, probably by as much as 20%. That leaves big Ohio and Texas.

In recent days Hillary has maintained her lead in Ohio. She’s up 1% to 12% in most polls so I think she’ll win there by 5% at least, more if we’re lucky. It’s too close to say for sure though because most polls have her lead in the margin of error.

Texas is about as close as it can get. Obama has had the lead in most recent polls by several points but both candidates are heading for that 50/50 mark. Wisdom on the ground there says a 50/50 split favors Obama, so I’m holding out hope still that Texas will go more like California and swing wildly to Hillary despite the polls.

If Hillary loses Texas but wins Ohio and Rhode Island she can claim victory on the night but her campaign will be in big trouble still with several unfavorable races ahead of them before Penn. I think that Hillary needs to win the popular vote at least in Texas to really have a viable campaign after tomorrow.

I’m still rooting for Hillary all the way, but if this time next week an Obama campaign seems inevitable then I guess I’ll sulk a little and get over it. In the meantime I hope Hillary fights through tomorrow and keeps on fighting.

With one week left, things look good and bad for Hillary.

The good news is that Hillary looks to keep her lead in Ohio and Rhode Island with Obama’s trends upward seeming to need a bit more time to catch Clinton than there is calender space.

The bad news is that Obama leads Vermont by landslide numbers practically and in Texas he has cut the lead to between -5 and +5 points.

Luckily the state that day with the least delegates is the state Clinton is doing worst in. Vermont is likely Obama’s without a fight and Rhode Island looks to be Hillary’s without a fight. Neither candidate seems too concerned with these states. The focus is Ohio and Texas for obvious reasons.

In Ohio I think that Hillary will continue to hold her lead. I would like to see her win there by 10 points but that may be too much to ask for given Obama’s momentum.

It is said that the blend of primary and caucus will help Obama in Texas. I hope not. Early voting started last week, and I would like to believe the idea that it is easier for the working class to make it to a primary on their own schedule than show up at a caucus on a very specific time. Depends on which campaign is spinning that answer.

There is a real concern that more black voters will make it to the polls than Latino despite the larger number of Latinos in the state. This is what I’ve seen many Obama supporters hoping for. Given the 35% to 11% advantage of Latinos over blacks in the state I’d say this is wishful thinking but something to consider given that Obama has energized black voters so much.

A good day for Clinton would be a strong win in Ohio, and Rhode Island, with a narrow win in Texas. This would let her win more delegates and more states on the day and say “I’m still alive” to the Superdelegates and her financial backers and more importantly the people in Penn where she’ll need a win in the next few weeks.

A great day would be strong wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas as well. I’m holding out hope that Texas will go much like California where Obama had caught up and even passed Hillary in the polls the week before yet Hillary won by nearly 20%. This would be a huge blow to the Obama campaign and the Clinton campaign would continue to argue the veracity Hillary’s large state strategy which in recent days has looked kinda dumb.

If Hillary loses even slightly in Texas it will be a huge boost to the Obama campaign that I’m not sure that even a Clinton can spin away. That is her base: Working class democrats, Latino voters, white men and women. You can’t get a better state for Clinton at this point and to lose it would verify what her critics have been saying since Wisconsin, that her coalition has collapsed.

To spin that off she’d need a dramatic win in Ohio to counterbalance it. At this point it is less about delegates and more about appearance. Can Hillary still win a race, even by 1 percentage point? I don’t think Hillary can catch Obama at this point though I think the final 16 races favor Hillary over Obama. Hillary just needs to start to win again and keep winning races and keep the confidence up in her campaign and close the gap as much as possible and hope that at the end of the day the gap is thin enough that if she wins by Superdelegates that there won’t be a public outcry.

Thank goodness early voting started yesterday in Texas before Obama continues to cut away at Hillary’s lead there. It wasn’t close in Wisconsin, and it sure wasn’t close in Hawaii so the media scenario played out exactly as they predicted after the Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana elections just past Super Tuesday. Ten in a row for Obama. Quite a grab.

I expected Hillary to lose most of the states except Wisconsin. I just figured she’d keep it closer than she did in much of them. She skids out of February primary season down roughy 150 pledged delegates, and 75 down total after Superdelegates. So what next? Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont in two weeks.

We know that the large Hispanic population will help Clinton in Texas but Obama hasn’t really begun all his campaigning there and he has cut Hillary’s lead down to 5 points or so. The question with Texas is will 2 weeks allow Clinton to solidify her lead or to lose it completely?

In Ohio Hillary’s lead remains decent and is stronger than Texas, something I figured would be the other way around. Same question remains. Will she be able to hold on for 2 weeks? All she needs is a 5 or 10 point win there to slice into Obama’s momentum, but can she manage that in Ohio or Texas?

In Rhode Island, Hillary’s slim lead is surely overshadowed by Obama’s string of victories. I haven’t seen polling in the last two weeks but demographics wise this is Clinton country. Hopefully somebody will poll this state again.

Same situation with Vermont. This might be Clinton country too, but I haven’t seen a single poll yet though some people have said they expect an Obama win in the state.

The bottom line is nothing much has changed for the Clinton campaign in the last few weeks. They’ve been banking on Texas and Ohio, later Penn, so the question remains can they do something to keep Obama from getting the lead in these incredibly important states?

The last few days have seen a series of petty but somewhat relevant attacks on Obama with everything from his refusal to debate to his lifting of speech lines from uncredited sources. The Clinton message is that Obama is all talk, no experience, and at the end of the day just running on his ability to generate crowd energy. Apparently Obama’s speech on the issues was overly long last night at 45 minutes, and didn’t quite have the energy his other speeches have had.

The Clinton campaign attacks combined with the GOP attacks already starting on Obama could really start to pile on in the next two weeks. It is unlikely that Obama would make a huge mistake between now and then, but if the media started to run with some of these stories it could really start to take the wind out of his sails. I hate to see this really. From the moment Obama gave his speech at the convention I knew he was rare and special in the political landscape. But I want Clinton to win the nomination so I hope that the heat keeps getting turned up ever so slightly and that at the end of the day there’s not too much strife in the party.

Hillary needs a good day. Scratch that. Hillary needs a great day. She’s hemorrhaging her lead in Texas, and her national average has dipped permanently below Obama. She can win Wisconsin, and she can come pretty close in Hawaii it looks like, but if she doesn’t make a strong showing in both then she could lose Texas in a few weeks, a must win for her.

I’ve always been one to note that the media has unfairly written the Clinton campaign off after a few bad turns but this time it’s do or die for sure. Nothing is certain until we see the results of Texas and Ohio, but devastating losses in Wisconsin today could continue to turn the public perception even more against Clinton and boost Obama.

To have a good day Hillary needs to keep it close in both races. If Obama wins both it needs to be by just a few delegates more. To have a great day Hillary needs to stay close in Hawaii and actually win in percentage points in Wisconsin even if she ties in delegates there. She needs a win just to boost the national message about her campaign.

Since Hawaii is a small state, she could lose there by 10 points and it would come down to a 1 delegate victory for Obama. If she loses Wisconsin by 5, that would come down to about a 6 delegate victory for Obama. Both outcomes could boost the Clinton campaign and erode some of the idea that Obama is the new front runner.

If Hillary can win Wisconsin by just 1 or 2 points, then she’ll have won more delegates given out today and lock up more superdelegate support, who are checking for the nearest available exit as Obama gets stronger and stronger.

Some polls have Hillary down 13 points in Wisconsin, up 8, down 5, and so forth, so I think this thing is going to be interesting and I’ll probably be biting nails waiting on returns.

Tomorrow if Hillary wins anything better than 35% of the vote, it will be a good night.  It is very unlikely that she can take either DC, Virginia or Maryland, so the best I hope for is to just close that gap.  Polls show her coming in around 20 points down in both Virginia and Maryland.  DC matters but it’s just 15 delegates.  If Hillary can escape with 65 delegates to Obama’s 103, then I’ll be happy.

Hillary needed to do well in Maine to try and stave off some of Obama’s momentum but really given Obama’s success at Caucusing her 15-20% loss is no surprise.

Luckily for Hillary the next 3, in DC, Virginia, and Maryland are all primaries, even if they have a large precentage of African American voters. She should easily get the 35-45% she needs to keep pace. She’s behind about 62 delegates with the current tally which leaves out a large chunk of Washington and Colorado, which means she could realistically be behind about 75 delegates.

Doing some rough estimates, losses in DC, Virginia, and Maryland puts Obama up about 110 Delegates. I’m hoping that Hillary can keep her lead in Wisconsin, a single ray of hope in a dark end of February, and gain back 10 delegates at least keeping Obama under about a 100 delegate lead.

The campaign’s theory involves gaining this back in Texas, Ohio, and Penn, but that’s looking less and less likely as the campaign deals with money issues and now a change in campaign leadership. However, there’s plenty of delegates left to go around, so for now we just wait out the continued long campaign and see if Obama can keep ahead or if Clinton can catch up…

We’ll want to look carefully at Texas, Ohio and Penn to see if Hillary’s double digit leads start to shrink in the next few weeks. If this does happen and Obama overtakes her there, then this thing will be over long before the convention.

It is also very likely that we’ll see Florida or Michigan having a do-over with their primaries. There is talk of this more and ore every day…